Saturday, July 21, 2018

Yale Zussman's July Recommendations

Hi Folks,
Here are my latest recommendations.  They range across a lot of issues:

Bishop Graham Tomlin and the Demonization of Israel
by Denis MacEoin
June 24, 2018

Useful background data on religious persecution in the Middle East.
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Palestinians: The Only Acceptable Peace Plan
by Bassam Tawil
June 25, 2018

Unfortunately, Mr. Tawil is right.
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Arab states not waiting for the Palestinians


Reviews evidence the Arab World is prepared to support Trump's "Deal of the Century".
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ARE PALESTINIANS READY TO TELL ‘SUPPORTERS’: WE'RE NOT YOUR TOY?
BY GOL KALEV
JULY 7, 2018
https://www.jpost.com/Magazine/Are-Palestinians-ready-to-tell-supporters-WERE-NOT-YOUR-TOY-561724

Focuses on role external supporters have had in preventing Palestinian recognition of the options actually available to them, and thus prolonging the conflict.
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After Hamas: Why Israel Fears A Power Vacuum in Gaza

Here is the text of a letter I sent to The Jerusalem Post on this matter a month ago:
Changing the Gaza Paradigm
Dear Sir or Madame:

Solving the domestic issues of Gaza may not be possible until there is a resolution of its ultimate fate.  There are only four possibilities here, and consideration of them points directly to what must happen next:

1) Hamas remains in control of Gaza--  If this turns out to be case, the fate of Gazans is sealed: their lives will continue to deteriorate as their rulers focus on using the territory as a base for an ongoing war against the Jews.  More death and destruction lie ahead and there is little point addressing civilian needs.

2) Gaza is reunited with the West Bank--  This is the "Palestinian State" scenario, but there is no way to know whether it would mean Gaza coming under the control of the PA or the West Bank coming under the control of Hamas, leading to the same outcome there we have seen in Gaza.  With the PA heading toward internal problems of its own, this is a non-starter.

3) Israel reasserts control in Gaza--  Doing so would require a lengthy urban war that would result in massive casualties and near-universal condemnation of Israel.  Presumably a return to focusing on civilian needs would follow it, but by then the damage would likely be overwhelming.  This is also not in the cards.

4) Gaza is turned over to Egypt-- This would be a reversion to the status quo ante 1967.  It would enable Egypt to root out the Muslim Brotherhood and other enemies of Egypt based in Gaza and likely help Egypt suppress Islamic State activities in Sinai.  Since the world generally doesn't care when Arabs kill Arabs, whatever devastation resulted from asserting Egyptian authority would likely be ignored. Having Gaza under Egyptian rule might be sufficient for the Saudis and Emiratis to underwrite reconstruction, a process that would require extensive construction and produce a large number of jobs in a place where unemployment runs rife.  It might offer hope to Gaza's young and thus reduce the anger that hopelessness has caused.

Resolving the fate of Gaza would also impact the PA and the West Bank.  Since there would no longer be any basis for a "Palestinian State" encompassing both territories, the people of the West Bank would then have to focus on their own fate.  That might create the basis for peace on that front as well.

Yale Zussman
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Why Russia Needs Israel

Prof. Hillel Frisch
July 16, 2018
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 895
https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/russia-needs-israel/

Useful for understanding Russia's/Putin's (not necessarily the same) approach to the region. The article doesn't address how Russia would square the circle of aligning with both Israel and the Shi'ites.
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“Recognizing Israeli Sovereignty on the Golan Heights”

Tuesday, July 17, 2018, 10:00 a.m.
Rayburn Hearing Room 2154, Washington, DC
Ambassador Dore Gold
Testimony before the House Committee on Oversight and Governance Reform, Subcommittee on National Security

The case for recognizing Israeli annexation of the Golan.

Not beach reading, I know, but I hope it keeps you busy during these lazy days of summer.

Until next time,

--Yale
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